Long-term seismic noise investigations on Shikotan Island: First results     

Yu. A. Kugaenko  V. A. Saltykov  V. I. Sinitsyn  A. A. Shishkin 《Russian Journal of Pacific Geology》2008,2(3):218-227

In 2003–2004, long-term seismic noise observations were launched on Shikotan Island (Lesser Kuril Range) based on the “Shikotan” dormant regional seismic station. The geological and geophysical data on the registration area are reported. Information about the equipment and its technical specifications is given. The precursors to the strongest local earthquakesthat occurred in the Shikotan Island region in January 2005–March 2007 are identified.  相似文献   

(ϖμ/ϖT) P of the lower mantle     

Yanbin Wang  Donald J. Weidner 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1996,146(3-4):533-549

We estimate (/T) _P of the lower mantle at seismic frequencies using two distinct approaches by combining ambient laboratory measurements on lower mantle minerals with seismic data. In the first approach, an upper bound is estimated for |(/T) _P | by comparing the shear modulus () profile of PREM with laboratory room-temperature data of extrapolated to high pressures. The second approach employs a seismic tomography constraint ( lnV _S / lnV _P ) _P =1.8–2, which directly relates (/T) _P with (K _S /T) _P . An average (K _S /T) _P can be obtained by comparing the well-established room-temperature compression data for lower mantle minerals with theK _S profile of PREM along several possible adiabats. Both (K _S /T) and (/T) depend on silicon content [or (Mg+Fe)/Sil of the model. For various compositions, the two approaches predict rather distinct (/T) _P vs. (K _S /T) _P curves, which intersect at a composition similar to pyrolite with (/T) _P =–0.02 to –0.035 and (K _S /T) _P =–0.015 to –0.020 GPa/K. The pure perovskite model, on the other hand, yields grossly inconsistent results using the two approaches. We conclude that both vertical and lateral variations in seismic velocities are consistent with variation due to pressure, temperature, and phase transformations of a uniform composition. Additional physical properties of a pyrolite lower mantle are further predicted. Lateral temperature variations are predicted to be about 100–250 K, and the ratio of ( lnp/ lnV _S ) _P around 0.13 and 0.26. All of these parameters increase slightly with depth if the ratio of ( lnV _S / lnV _P ) _P remains constant throughout the lower mantle. These predicted values are in excellent agreement with geodynamic analyses, in which the ratios ( ln / lnV _S ) _P and ( / lnV _S ) _P are free parameters arbitrarily adjusted to fit the tomography and geoid data.  相似文献   

北京及邻区微震活动的初步分析     

赵永  高艳玲 《地震地磁观测与研究》1996,17(5):42-49

通过对北京遥测地震台网近年来记录到的北京及邻区地震的震中分布,地震活动频度及能量释放强度的分析,得到本区地震活动在时间分布上具有“聚堆性”。在年发震频度,地震强度和能释放方面均具有双峰值特征,并且具有较好的一致性和同步性,在空间分布上具有条带特征,且形成北东～南西和北西～南东的两条相互交汇的条带。又通过统计分析得到本区发震概率最大的时间段是每年的１０月前后,而地震主要发生在北西～南东带上。  相似文献   

Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland     

Erik Rüttener  Juan José Egozcue  Dieter Mayer-Rosa  Stephan Mueller 《Natural Hazards》1996,14(2-3):165-178

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.  相似文献   

Some comparisons between mining-induced and laboratory earthquakes   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

A. McGarr 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1994,142(3-4):467-489

Although laboratory stick-slip friction experiments have long been regarded as analogs to natural crustal earthquakes, the potential use of laboratory results for understanding the earthquake source mechanism has not been fully exploited because of essential difficulties in relating seismographic data to measurements made in the controlled laboratory environment. Mining-induced earthquakes, however, provide a means of calibrating the seismic data in terms of laboratory results because, in contrast to natural earthquakes, the causative forces as well as the hypocentral conditions are known. A comparison of stick-slip friction events in a large granite sample with mining-induced earthquakes in South Africa and Canada indicates both similarities and differences between the two phenomena. The physics of unstable fault slip appears to be largely the same for both types of events. For example, both laboratory and mining-induced earthquakes have very low seismic efficiencies where _a is the apparent stress and is the average stress acting on the fault plane to cause slip; nearly all of the energy released by faulting is consumed in overcoming friction. In more detail, the mining-induced earthquakes differ from the laboratory events in the behavior of as a function of seismic momentM ₀. Whereas for the laboratory events 0.06 independent ofM ₀, depends quite strongly onM ₀ for each set of induced earthquakes, with 0.06 serving, apparently, as an upper bound. It seems most likely that this observed scaling difference is due to variations in slip distribution over the fault plane. In the laboratory, a stick-slip event entails homogeneous slip over a fault of fixed area. For each set of induced earthquakes, the fault area appears to be approximately fixed but the slip is inhomogeneous due presumably to barriers (zones of no slip) distributed over the fault plane; at constant , larger events correspond to larger _a as a consequence of fewer barriers to slip. If the inequality _a / 0.06 has general validity, then measurements of _a =µE _a /M ₀, where is the modulus of rigidity andE _a is the seismically-radiated energy, can be used to infer the absolute level of deviatoric stress at the hypocenter.  相似文献   

The upper mantle structure of the yakutian kimberlite province,eastern Russia     

V. F. Uarov 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1994,142(2):311-318

Deep seismic sounding in the region of the Mirnyi kimberlite field indicates that the boundary velocity of the uppermost mantle is elevated (v _b=8.6–8.8 km/sec) and extremely variable near the Mir kimberlite pipe. These velocity heterogeneities are probably associated with the kimberlite magmatism and may be useful in the identification of other kimberlite fields.  相似文献   

地震综合效应场函数及其在地震预报中的应用──（一）地震综合效应场函数及其计算方法     

罗兰格 《华北地震科学》1994,(3)

在系统地分析了目前各种测震学地震预报方法科学思路的基础上,认为测震学地震预报方法基本上可以分为两大类。一类是以已经发生的一些地震作为未来可能发生的地震的“因”,即由于已经发生的地震对区域应力场的影响,导致未来发生较强地震。这一类包括的预报方法较多,如空区、条带、ｂ值、地震迁移、相关地震等等及其由此衍生出来的各种方法。另一类是把已经发生的一些地震作为区域应力场增强的“果”,即已经发生的地震是区域应力场增强过程中的一种反映,而未来地震不一定是已经发生的地震所导致的结果。这一类包括“地震窗口”、小震群活动等方法。针对第一类方法,各种预报方法都是力图从地震三要素中提取未来地震的信息,而具体作法又都是利用地震三要素这个多维空间的某个剖面。为了从地震活动诸要素的多维空间提取综合信息,我们对每个地震加入了破裂面方位,构成了地震第四要素,并依据地震４要素建立了地震综合效应场函数。地震综合效应场函数概括了多种测震学地震预报方法的科学思路和预报经验,从而可以形成测震学的综合预报方法。  相似文献   

Seismic hazard of Egypt   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

A. El-Sayed  R. Wahlströ;m  O. Kulhánek 《Natural Hazards》1994,10(3):247-259

Earthquake hazard parameters such as maximum expected magnitude,M _max, annual activity rate,, andb value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation have been evaluated for two regions of Egypt. The applied maximum likelihood method permits the combination of both historical and instrumental data. The catalogue used covers earthquakes with magnitude 3 from the time interval 320–1987. The uncertainties in magnitude estimates and threshold of completeness were taken into account. The hazard parameter determination is performed for two study areas. The first area, Gulf of Suez, has higher seismicity level than the second, all other active zones in Egypt.b-values of 1.2 ± 0.1 and 1.0 ± 0.1 are obtained for the two areas, respectively. The number of annually expected earthquakes with magnitude 3 is much larger in the Gulf of Suez, 39 ± 2 than in the other areas, 6.1 ± 0.5. The maximum expected magnitude is calculated to be 6.5 ± 0.4 for a time span of 209 years for the Gulf of Suez and 6.1 ± 0.3 for a time span of 1667 years for the remaining active areas in Egypt. Respective periods of 10 and 20 years were reported for earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 for the two subareas.  相似文献   

Deep structure of the Central Alps in the light of recent seismic data     

H. Laubscher 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1994,83(2):237-248

The deep seismic reflection traverses across the Central Alps (NFP 20, ECORS-CROP) contain a new set of data on the lower crust which has been interpreted in different ways. One currently fashionable model depicts the European lower crust (ELC) as gently dipping below the Adriatic crust. However, this model requires that an observed sharp termination of the ELC under the internal border of the External Massifs is due to the non-transmission of organized seismic energy through the complex upper crust. This explanation is questioned as other reflections in this and similarly complex areas are recorded, and as the same sharp termination of the ELC under the internal border of the External Massifs is observed on all seismic lines for a length of 300 km. A tectonic — metamorphic cause appears to more satisfactorily explain the obeservations, and therefore an alternative model combining surface and deep geophysical data is proposed. It consists of three mutually largely decoupled tectonic levels. (1) The shallow obducted part or lid, bounded at its base by the combined Late Miocene Jura and Lombardic basal thrusts. Estimates of shortening based on balanced sections are at least about 100 km. (2) The intermediate level between the brittle-ductile transition and the top of the subducted mantle. It contains a stack of lower crust imbrications (with a minor admixture of upper mantle) accommodated by (inducted into) the ductile middle crust. Estimates of shortening based on area balancing are again of the order of slightly more than 100 km. (3) The subducted upper mantle, for which there are no reflection data.In the Central Alps the Late Miocene phase was dextrally transpressive, producing flower structures at the shallow level (External Massifs); the stacks of lower crust imbrications at the intermediate level may be the equivalent of the External Massifs at that level. Inverted flower structures of the subducted mantle are possible, but no detailed data are available.  相似文献   

杠杆点评估及设计空间抗差     

黄幼才 《测绘学报》1993,22(4):289-293

本分析了杠杆点的几何含义和统计特征,从杠杆点的保差性,矩阵的摄动和参数估值可靠性的观点出发讨论了杠杆点的不利和有利的两个方面,提出了一个全面的设计空间抗差方案。  相似文献